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2023

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We Health explores the market status and development prospects of China's bone health industry.


One. Industry development background

1, China's population aging, the proportion of 65-year-old population increased year by year.

China is one of the countries with the fastest aging population in the world. We health system insight into the seventh census shows that as of November 2020, people over the age of 65 accounted for 13.5 percent of the total population in China, and the aging of the population has further deepened. The United Nations stipulates that the proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old in the total population is more than 7% or the proportion of the elderly population over 60 years old in the total population is more than 10% of the elderly countries or regions. According to United Nations standards, China has entered an aging society since 2000.

From 2008 to 2020, the number of people over 65 years old in China has been increasing, and the proportion of the total population has also been increasing. In 2020, my country will have 264.02 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 18.7 per cent of the total population, of which 190.64 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 13.5 per cent of the total population. Thus, China's population aging trend is accelerating.

2. The level of health care expenditure of urban and rural residents has increased.

The level of medical and health care expenditure of urban and rural residents in China has increased, and the proportion of consumption expenditure has increased year by year, reflecting the increasingly strong medical demand of Chinese residents. From the analysis of the growth of health care expenditure of urban and rural residents, it can be seen that the per capita health care expenditure of urban residents from 2007 to 2020 is higher than the total per capita health care expenditure of rural residents, and the per capita health care expenditure of urban residents and the per capita health care expenditure of rural residents are increasing year by year. In 2020, the per capita medical and health care expenditure of urban residents and rural residents in China will be 2172 yuan and 1418 yuan respectively.

Overall, in recent years, with the exception of a decline in 2020, the proportion of health care expenditure of rural residents in China has shown an upward trend, while the health care expenditure of urban residents has shown a downward and then upward trend. In 2020, China's urban and rural residents will spend 10.34 percent and 8.04 percent, respectively.

II. Industry development status

1, orthopedic market demand is strong, the number of patients increased year by year.

Due to the increasing aging and the improvement of the medical level of urban and rural residents, the orthopedic market demand in China is strong, and the number of patients is increasing year by year. From 2012 to 2019, the number of visits to orthopedic hospitals in China showed a fluctuating upward trend, with 16.6944 million visits in 2019, an increase of 6.39 percent over 2018. According to the single cost of diagnosis and treatment in China's orthopaedic hospitals and the total income of China's orthopaedic hospitals, combined with the growth trend of the number of patients in China's orthopaedic hospitals, the number of patients in China's orthopaedic hospitals in 2020 is estimated to be about 17.0283 million.

From 2012 to 2019, the overall number of admissions to orthopedic hospitals in China increased. The number of admissions in 2012 increased from 772100 to 1.4566 million in 2019, an increase of 0.61 percent over 2018. According to the trend of the growth rate of hospital admissions in China's orthopaedic hospitals in recent years, the number of hospital admissions in China's orthopaedic hospitals in 2020 is about 1471214.

2, supply and demand imbalance, orthopedic treatment costs rising year after year

The imbalance between supply and demand in the industry has led to an increase in the cost of orthopedic disease treatment for residents year by year. From the most representative average treatment cost of lumbar disc herniation, from 2013 to 2019, the per capita medical expenses increased from 8528.0 yuan to 10048.0 yuan. Specifically, the cost of medicine has a downward trend, while the cost of examination, treatment and surgery is on the rise.

3, orthopedic hospital income and expenditure increased, the profit level is relatively stable.

From 2012 to 2019, the overall income and expenditure of orthopaedic hospitals in China showed an increasing trend, and the total profit fluctuated. In 2019, total orthopedic hospital revenue was $19.214 billion, total orthopedic hospital expenditure was $18.533 billion, and total orthopedic hospital profit was $0.682 billion.

According to the forecast of the growth of income and expenditure of orthopedic hospitals in China, the total income of orthopedic hospitals in 2020 will be about 21.5 billion yuan, the total expenditure of orthopedic hospitals will be 20.7 billion yuan, and the total profit of orthopedic hospitals will be 0.8 billion yuan.

In terms of the structure of orthopedic hospital revenue, medical revenue is the most important source of revenue for orthopedic hospitals, accounting for 96.35 percent of orthopedic hospital medical revenue in 2019, with a total revenue of $18.513 billion; financial assistance revenue accounting for 2.71 percent, with a total revenue of $0.521 billion. According to the growth of the income structure of China's orthopaedic hospitals, the forecast of orthopaedic financial subsidy income, medical income and other income in 2020 is 0.58 billion yuan, 20.7 billion yuan and 0.22 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 2.70 percent, 96.28 percent and 1.02 percent respectively.

Three. Industry development prospects

1, orthopedic diseases concentrated in people over the age of 45

We health system observation: from the age structure of patients with orthopedic diseases, the number of patients with orthopedic diseases under 14 years old is relatively small, and the proportion of patients aged 15-44 is between 5% and 35%. Patients with orthopedic diseases are mainly concentrated in people over 45 years old. Among them, more than 75% of patients with joint, gout, spine, intervertebral disc, bone density and bone structure diseases are people aged 45 and above.

2, the future trend of aging is not optimistic, bone disease market space is broad.

In the future, the aging population will further deepen, and the population over 65 will exceed 0.3 billion in 2025. According to data released by Credit Suisse in early February 2020, China will enter a super-aged society around 2032, I .e. the population over 65 is greater than the population aged 10-25. It is estimated that the population aged 60 and above in mainland China will reach 0.3 billion in 2025, exceed 0.4 billion in 2033, and reach a 0.487 billion peak around 2050, accounting for about 1/3 of the total population. Orthopedic diseases are mainly concentrated in people over 45 years old, so the deepening of aging will promote the development of China's bone disease market to a certain extent, and the future prospects of China's bone disease market are very broad.

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